AI: From Sail to Steam

"Call me Ishmael. Some years ago—never mind how long precisely—having little or no money in my purse, and nothing particular to interest me on shore, I thought I would sail about a little and see the watery part of the world." - Moby Dick

Sail and the wind. The Ocean and expansive horizons. There are few of us who have not looked out from the beach in fine weather and enjoyed at least some daydreams about where they could go and what it would be like. There is a deeply held sense that these forces of nature  intertwine, sometimes favorably and sometimes not so.

The Greeks had the Moirai (the Fates) who wove the thread of every mortal’s life. The Norse had the Norns who wove fate at the foot of their tree of life, Yggdrasil. Themes that connect deeply, with threads continuing into some of the most successful modern literature.

The Age of Sail

"The wind and the waves are always on the side of the ablest navigator." - Edmund Gibbon

Humans are not content merely to ponder new frontiers. Navigation and adventures inexorably moved forward in long chapters. First, for thousands of years, by the stars. Then, for thousands more, by the use of lodestones or compasses. Each granted their advantage, surpassed by accurate clocks mere centuries ago.

Determinism was being imposed on the forces of nature that ruled the world, although fate was still tied to the vagaries of the wind. Regional powers rose and fell on their ability to harness sail. In the 16th century, Redbeard (Hayreddin Barbarossa) notably trounced a superior Holy League fleet at the Battle of Preveza by using his knowledge of the wind.

Not for the last time, technology and numerical advantage were dominated by an appropriate strategy that accommodated the whims of nature.

Steam and Determinism

“There are in all the capitals of Europe, a crowd of adventurers and men with plans who roam the world, offering to every sovereign their so-called discoveries which only exist in their imaginations. They're no more than charlatans or imposters, who have no other goal except to grab money. This American is one of that number. Do not speak of him to me any more.” - Napoleon Bonaparte (in response to Robert Fulton’s Steamship)

Moving along this path of technical conquest, the advent of steam power was slow and messy. Fulton invented the steamship in 1807, but it wasn’t until the 1860s that steamers were reliably besting clippers in trials such as the Tea Races. It took time for the technology to improve, but also for support infrastructure to be built (coaling ports, for one thing). New routes also opened to steam, such as the Suez Canal in 1869. Some clung to sail until the very end. Notably, the Cutty Sark, the last remaining Tea Clipper, was built in the belief that the Suez canal and steamships would not prevail against sail.

Successful strategies for the use of this new technology also required work. The Ottoman Navy (Redbeard’s successors) purchased steam warships from Britain in the 1830s-1860s, yet few of these vessels ever left port. Lacking infrastructure and attempting to use their previously successful strategies from the age of sail, they declined as a Naval power.

It was not until the new technology, appropriate strategies and the right infrastructure came together that steam succeeded.

Steam and AI: Why the Shared Fail?

The first wave of AI projects, similar to the first wave of steam powered modernization, has had a high failure rate. Why?

The RAND Corporation, among others, has recently released a study that looks into what some of the causes might be. A summary list recalls many of the lessons learned in the past:

1. FOMO

Once it became clear that steam was a game changer, some navies (and companies) charged ahead with the technology before they had reconsidered their broader strategy. Money was lost, as were naval battles.

Fear of Missing Out is classically a failure of top-down command. Changes are ordered before the organization is ready. The same applied to the first AI projects rolled out.

2. The Technology-First Fallacy

The RAND study revealed many examples of the pursuit of AI for its own sake. Engineers and product managers, eager to build their resumes with the latest buzzwords, advocated for complex solutions when simpler approaches would suffice.

The technology-first fallacy represents a “bottom-up” pressure, a risky counterpart to Executive FOMO, which tends to be “top-down”. Both come with the risk of perceived time pressure outweighing the need to reflect on the best combined course of action. Over-extension on either front results in failure.

3. The Rush into Complexity

Revisiting the RAND study, the research found that many organizations rapidly switch priorities every few weeks or months, abandoning projects before they have the opportunity to demonstrate real results. As one participant observed, "Often, models are delivered as 50 percent of what they could have been."

The key to unlocking complexity is often found by identifying the specific new use cases that uniquely suit the technology and offer competitive advantages. Early uses of steamships in typical Naval formations were not always successful, but some other use cases were very positive. 

Steam-powered riverboats during the American Civil War offered huge advantages, allowing travel against the current, up-stream, and avoiding poor roads. Similarly, finding the new classes of problems that can be tackled by AI within your organization will take time, but may surprise you positively.

4. The Human Element : Culture

"Men wanted for hazardous journey to the South Pole. Small wages, bitter cold, long months of complete darkness, constant danger. Safe return doubtful" - Ernest Shackleton (possibly apocryphal)

The final leadership challenge revealed by the study is the failure to account for organizational resistance and change management. Technical teams reported that subject matter experts often resist AI projects because they believe these initiatives are intended to replace their jobs. It is hard to fault this concern.

Leading through transformational change requires not just a new technology, or even a new implementation strategy. It requires that the team is also brought along on the journey. Steam brought determinism to locomotive power, but the need for good seafaring skills survived. Similarly, AI brings us new leverage for the people in an organization, but their know-how will remain critical to a company’s success.

Charting a Course

Figuring out transformational change takes vision, collaboration and - like Ahab - dogged persistence. The difference will ultimately be how many of the rocks you can avoid, coupled with the life you can breathe into the drier, longer-running challenges. The RAND study is a great reminder that these challenges are just as hard today as they have ever been.

The team at fluidmind specializes in helping businesses navigate this complex landscape.  Contact us to learn how we can help you develop and implement a successful AI strategy.

As the Navy Hymn reminds us with its repeated refrain, the risk is never zero:

“Oh, hear us when we cry to Thee,
For those in peril on the sea!”